Using Regression Analysis to Forecast the Factors Affecting the Enrollment of a Tertiary School

The development of the enrollment forecast was done using three models: the logit model (for demographic profile), the percentage, base and rate concepts (for price), and Markov analysis (for quality and convenience). The variables and the relationships among them were analyzed using the models. Enrollment forecast, based from the mathematical models, revealed that males are less likely to attend school by 23% than females. As they grow older the likelihood of attending school also decreases by 57.5%. With regards to age, results of the study shows that for every one year increase in the age, the likelihood of attending school decreases by 27.5%, and it even decreases further by 57 percent as they grow older. In terms of per capita income and remittance, as their values increases the probability/likelihood to pay tuition fee higher than the suggested tuition fee of the region (P29,579.00) increases.

Keywords: models, enrollment, forecast, Markov analysis, logit model